Executive Summary
The energy transition depends on minerals with highly concentrated supply chains. Our geopolitical risk assessment identifies lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements as the most vulnerable to supply disruption, with potential price impacts of 150-400% under severe scenarios.
Supply Concentration Analysis
Current supply concentration presents material risks across the critical minerals complex. The Democratic Republic of Congo controls 73% of global cobalt production, while China dominates rare earth processing (87% market share) and lithium refining (65% market share). This concentration creates single points of failure in the battery and clean energy supply chains.
Scenario Modeling
- Base case: Gradual diversification with 15% supply reallocation by 2030
- Moderate disruption: Trade restrictions causing 20% supply reduction, 80% price increase
- Severe disruption: Geopolitical conflict causing 40% supply reduction, 300% price spike
Mitigation Strategies
We identify three primary mitigation pathways: geographic diversification of extraction and processing, recycling infrastructure development, and technology substitution. Each pathway requires different capital allocation and time horizons, with recycling offering the most attractive near-term risk-adjusted returns.